ABSTRACT

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i

chapter 1|22 pages

The Basics

chapter 2|20 pages

Uncertainty

chapter 3|50 pages

Risk Management

chapter 4|34 pages

Risk Assessment

chapter 5|38 pages

Risk Communication

chapter 6|22 pages

Problem Identification for Risk Management

chapter 7|16 pages

Brainstorming

chapter 8|20 pages

Opportunity Costs and Trade-Offs

chapter 9|38 pages

Qualitative Risk Assessment

chapter 11|16 pages

Probability Review

chapter 12|44 pages

Choosing a Probability Distribution

chapter 13|24 pages

Probability Elicitation

chapter 14|12 pages

Monte Carlo Process

chapter 15|22 pages

Probabilistic Scenario Analysis

chapter 16|36 pages

Sensitivity Analysis

chapter 17|50 pages

Presenting and Using Assessment Results

chapter 18|14 pages

Message Development